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This official account is a serious official account, with a clear point of view on the front: trend, there is no chance of a pullback years ago. Spot continues to be tight.
Recently, the spot of lysine in the circulation market is very short, and more than 80% of feed mills are busy purchasing to replenish the spot. This week, the spot price has also risen to around 6/10, and there is also a phenomenon of "out of stock" in different regions. (Note that this price is in stock, and it can be shipped on the same day!) In addition, at the time of writing this article, the futures price has also risen.
Some analytical views are still cautious and pessimistic, so naive!
Indirect conventional influencing factors are not mentioned, such as soybean meal, fourth-quarter farming, winter snow, etc.
Background: Buyers go short, sell down
Starting point: mid-October; the idea of supporting corn and using corn to anchor lysine fell through. Buyer builds position at a low level
Fuse: Capacity decreases, short-term centralized large-scale shipments are difficult to achieve, and the buyer's inventory plan fails
Fermentation factors: capacity resources cannot be restored, and domestic trade circulation supply continues to shrink
98 acid theoretical basis supply and demand: In the case of Xijie Shenyang factory shutdown, other enterprises are full production, export volume remains 25,000 tons/month (January-September average monthly export volume is 27,600 tons), domestic supply can basically meet consumption, a slight surplus, the balance of about half a month of inventory.
The actual supply and demand of 98 acid at present: 1. The export volume exceeds 25,000 tons. 2. The Xijie Shenyang factory has not been shut down. 3. There are enterprises for maintenance, and the production is not full
70 acid theoretical basis supply and demand: Under the premise of full production of each enterprise (Chengfu new production capacity has not been put in), the export volume remains 18,000 tons/ton (the average monthly export volume from January to September is 20,500 tons), the domestic supply is more than the consumption, and the balance is one to one and a half months of inventory.
Current actual supply and demand of 70 acid: 1. The export volume exceeds 18,000 tons. 2. Chengfu new factory started, but the production capacity has not been released. 3. There are enterprise inspections, and the production is not full
Summary: Theoretically, both are in excess supply, but exports are in excess. The actual supply and demand of 98 acids is tight, and the loose balance of 70 acids is loose, with a balance of half a month to a month.
According to the description in (1), the domestic monthly supply can basically meet the consumption. If the production enterprises carry out centralized pre-sale, the market will show the phenomenon of supply pressure.
However, the implementation of the road "overhaul" policy has reduced the supply that can be paid to the demand side. The supply of the cash market is mainly determined by "transportation capacity".
Road transportation shipments have dropped from the original 40 tons to 30 tons, a decrease of about 25%. The overall road transportation capacity has declined. If you want to increase the capacity, there are two ways for enterprises:
In short, the transportation capacity is stretched, full of loopholes, and it is a common phenomenon in various industries at present. Transportation before the Spring Festival is only more difficult, and there is no opportunity to ease. (Please refer to the same period before this year for why it is more difficult)
Spot supply and demand are affected by exports and production, which itself is already a basic balance pattern. The decline in capacity makes it difficult to pay for the supply of spot goods in full. In the process of circulation cashing, spot goods are scattered in the form of inventory in various links one after another, resulting in smaller and smaller circulation plates. Unless demand companies can reduce the amount of lysine used, the rally will be inexhaustible. (The suggestion for some feed companies in early November was to sweep spot goods or reduce the amount added. Now it is difficult to achieve the suggestion of sweeping spot goods)
Will the tight spot situation ease? Will the market end with the manufacturer's quotation? Let's take a look at the current order situation.
The supply of 70 is tighter than that of 98, so our analysis of the order situation of 70 can be pushed to 98 acid (refer to 2.1 for the reason)
The theoretical supply of 70 acid is about one month more inventory than the consumption, which means that if the buyer can operate with a one-month weekly dynamic inventory, the supply and demand can reach a balance. The current situation is that the buyer has already held orders for two months, so the production company has no ability to accept spot orders within one month (so this time the market "control" statement is unfair to the production company). Receiving orders is also a futures order. In the case of uncontrollable transportation capacity, the production company does not accept SLR but is responsible for performance.
After one month, if the manufacturer has the ability to accept orders, the buyer will continue to replenish the order and eat it all. This situation will continue before the Spring Festival.
So the trend is that lysine has no chance of correction before the Spring Festival.
There is one point I want to emphasize here. In the process of communicating with the market, I found that the buyer's judgment on the market of lysine is until the Spring Festival. But the logistics will not improve until at least one month after the Spring Festival. If the stocking plan is stuck until the Spring Festival, it is recommended to also consider the logistics situation after the Spring Festival properly, and everything is based on spot warehousing as the safety standard.
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